Current Trajectory

Rate of Warming per Decade

Human-caused warming has increased at a rate of around 0.27°C per decade (2015-2024) and is mainly, roughly 80%, due to the continued build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, but also due to declines in planet-cooling aerosols that have been masking some of the warming we would have otherwise experienced.

Years Expected to Breach Paris Agreement Limits

The Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty on climate change, sets an overarching goal to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.” To limit global warming to 1.5°C, greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 at the latest and decline by 43% by 2030.

Based on the current Human-Induced Warming and the rate of warming:

• The estimated year of breaching the 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) limit is approximately 2030.
• The estimated year of breaching the 2 °C (3.6 °F) limit is approximately 2048.