Current trajectory

What is the Current Trajectory?

This is a simple estimate for when the 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) warming level, as mentioned by the Paris Agreement, will be reached based on the Current Human-Induced Warming and its recent changes. The Paris Agreement has the goal of limiting the global temperature increase to well below 2 °C (3.6 °F), while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 °C.

The estimated year, 2031, is the midpoint of the decade 2026 to 2035, in which we are projected to reach 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) warming.

It is a critical indicator because it highlights the time period that remains until 1.5 °C warming is reached by IPCC AR6 standards at the current trajectory. Reducing the impact of human activities on global warming will delay the estimated year.

Please note that on this trajectory, 1.5 °C warming will occur several years after the remaining carbon budget has been depleted; the calculation is formulated like this to consider future non-CO2 warming.

Units and measures

Temperature increase per decade in degrees Celsius (°C) or degrees Fahrenheit (°F), and the estimated year of reaching 1.5 °C (2.7 °F).

Wikipedia: Degree Celsius

Insights from this chart

The rate of a 0.26 °C (0.47 °F) temperature increase per decade may seem small, but it is very significant. At this rate, 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) warming will be reached in the early-2030s. It is a critical decade in which to implement impactful mitigation efforts to adjust the trajectory.

About the data

Climate Change Tracker is part of the Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) initiative to spread indicators of climate change that are consistent with the IPCC Assessment Report 6. The IGCC produces estimates for key climate indicators: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, surface temperature changes, the Earth’s energy imbalance, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes.

IGCC: Indicators of Global Climate Change
Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: Annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and the human influence

Data sources

IGCC Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Piers M. Forster et al.
Credits: Credits: Smith, C., Walsh, T., Gillett, N., Hall, B., Hauser, M., Krummel, P., Lamb, W., Lamboll, R., Lan, X., Muhle, J., Palmer, M., Ribes, A., Schumacher, D., Seneviratne, S., Trewin, B., von Schuckmann, K., & Forster, P. (2024). ClimateIndicator/data: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023 revision (v2024.05.29a) [Data set]. Zenodo. cycle: yearlyDelay: mixed