Latest indicators of observed warming and energy imbalance.

Global Warming

Latest indicators of observed warming, average temperature anomaly, rate of change, average temperature, geographical breakdowns, energy imbalance, radiative forcing.

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What is the Yearly Average Observed Temperature Anomaly?

It is the difference between the average yearly global surface temperature and its pre-industrial baseline. The pre-industrial baseline is calculated as the average temperature from 1850 to 1900. It is also referred to as the observed warming, and is based on most recent data including natural fluctuations.

The average temperature anomaly is a crucial metric because the change in the Earth’s average temperature is causing major transformations to our planet. It puts the existence of many species - including humans – at risk. Efforts to adapt to the impacts of global warming should consider the impacts with respect to this observed warming.

Many scientific global average temperature anomalies use a 1951 to 1980 baseline, showing anomaly values roughly 0.3 °C (0.54 °F) lower. While it is scientifically valid to choose any baseline, the global community, governments and other organizations are setting targets to limit global warming at 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) with respect to the pre-industrial baseline from 1850 to 1900.

⚠️ Please note that Human-Induced Warming is the indicator that should be used to track humanity's progress against the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global temperature increase to well below 2 °C (3.6 °F), while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). We publish Human-Induced Warming indicators in a special dashboard, which is updated only once in a year by the IGCC collaboration. Though it doesn't reflect the most recent data on the state of climate change, it reflects important scientific details like uncertainty ranges and long term indicators.

Degree Celsius (°C) or degree Fahrenheit (°F) per year

The overall increase in the average temperature anomaly since the pre-industrial baseline is driven by human emissions of several greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and others, which cause an increased greenhouse effect. We, i.e. humans, are still emitting more greenhouse gases and are causing more warming.

The period from 1850-1900, with relatively small blue and orange fluctuations in the chart, sets the baseline and is widely known as the pre-industrial era baseline.

Global warming already started in the 1920s. During the 1945 to 1975 period, heavy atmospheric pollution caused by humans cooled the Earth by reflecting Sunlight, a process known as global dimming. The cooling effect from global dimming was reduced significantly by several global efforts to reduce air pollution.

Since the late 1970s, there has been a steady and very rapid increase in the global average temperature anomaly. The year 2023 was the hottest full year on record, with an exceptionally hot second half of the year. On top of steady anthropogenic warming there is currently extra warming from El Niño conditions along with extreme Northern Atlantic temperatures. The value for 2024 represents the last 12 months of available temperature data and it has currently crossed 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), it may also drop again towards the end of the year

For a large part of the last 2000 years the global average temperature anomaly was about 0.2 °C (0.36 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 baseline. The warming of the last 100 years is very large and extremely fast compared to the long period before.

The global temperature anomaly does change over time due to natural causes, but human greenhouse gas emissions caused changes that disrupt our planet. If we, humanity, reduce our greenhouse gas emissions we can halt global warming.

IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Official Website

For values since 1850 we primarily use data from the IGCC, which is an average of four sources: HadCRUT5, NOAAGlobalTemp, Berkeley Earth and Kadow et al.. The IGCC data updates yearly, to estimate warming for the current year the latest updates from sources are used directly. This data is gathered using a huge number of weather stations on land, ships, buoys and more.

For the years leading up to 1850 we use PAGES2k Consortium reconstruction data. It is based on models where temperatures are reconstructed from proxies. Proxy analysis has higher uncertainty, and we display the smoothed set to highlight the longer-term fluctuations.

The value for the current year is actually the average for the last 12 months; for example, in March we include values since the previous April. This approach allows us to include the latest data for a full year and avoids showing possibly misleading values when using shorter time periods.

PAGES2k Common Era Surface Temperature Reconstructions

Yearly Average Observed Temperature Anomaly

This is the average surface temperature of the whole Earth over a full year. It is based on measurements taken by thousands of weather stations on land and sea.

The Yearly Average Temperature is a crucial metric because the change in the Earth’s average temperature causes major transformations to our planet. It puts the existence of many species – including humans – at risk.

The Yearly Average Temperature is directly related to the Yearly Average Temperature Anomaly. The shapes of the graphs are the exact same. The average temperature between 1850 and 1900 is about 13.84 °C (56.91 °F), which is the pre-industrial baseline at which the anomaly is zero. For example the average temperature in 2020 was 15.11 °C (59.20 °F), which is 1.27 °C (2.28 °F) above the pre-industrial baseline (anomaly).

The overall increase in temperature since 1850 is driven by human emissions of several greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and others, which cause an increased greenhouse effect. We, humans, are still emitting more greenhouse gases and are causing more warming.

The average temperature started rising in the 1920s, however, during the 1945 to 1975 period, heavy atmospheric pollution caused by humans cooled the Earth by reflecting Sunlight, a process known as global dimming. The cooling effect from global dimming was reduced significantly by several global efforts to reduce air pollution.

Since the late 1970s, there has been a steady and very rapid increase in the global average temperature anomaly. The year 2023 was the hottest full year on record, with an exceptionally hot second half of the year. On top of steady anthropogenic warming there is currently extra warming from El Niño conditions along with extreme Northern Atlantic temperatures. The value for 2024 represents the last 12 months of available temperature data and is expected to remain high.

For a large part of the last 2000 years the global average temperature was around 14 °C (57.2 °F). The warming of the last 100 years, currently above 15 °C (59 °F), is very large and extremely fast compared to any temperature change in the long period before.

While the global temperature does change over time due to natural causes, human greenhouse gas emissions cause changes that really disrupt our planet. If we, humanity, reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, we can halt global warming.

For the years leading up to 1850 we use PAGES2k Consortium reconstruction data. It is based on models where temperatures are reconstructed from proxies. Proxy analysis has higher uncertainty, and we display the smoothed set to highlight the longer term fluctuations.

The value for the current year is actually the average for the last 12 months, for example in March we include values since the previous April. This approach allows us to include the latest data for a full year and avoids showing possibly misleading values when using shorter time periods.

Yearly Average Temperature

It is the 30-year moving regression of Earth's temperature increase or decrease per year. It indicates the speed at which the Earth is warming up (red line) or cooling down (blue line), whereby positive higher values indicate faster warming and negative lower values indicate faster cooling. We use a 30-year moving regression because climate is about long-term weather patterns, typically averaged over 30 years.

The Rate of Temperature Change is a critical metric because it shows how fast global warming is happening.

Temperature change in degree Celsius (°C) or degree Fahrenheit (°F) per year

This chart focuses on the speed of the warming periods and cooling periods after 1850. Before 1920 there were periods of warming and cooling and they were relatively slow. After 1920 the change of temperature accelerated significantly, which you can see in the height of the second red hill. The following small blue area represents the slowdown and cooling period during the global dimming. After global dimming and 1975 the temperature rise became even faster than before and there have been no more cooling periods since.

Read more about details of Yearly Average Temperature and global dimming at

This value is a 30-year moving regression of temperature. We use a 30-year moving regression because climate is about long-term weather patterns, typically averaged over 30 years. A moving regression is a calculation used to analyze data points by creating a series of linear trendlines of different subsets of the full data set.

Rate of Temperature Change

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What is the Yearly Temperature Anomaly Distribution?

This is the geographical breakdown of regional temperature anomalies around the Earth per year. Each temperature anomaly is the difference between the average yearly surface temperature and its pre-industrial baseline for that area. The pre-industrial baseline is calculated as the average temperature from 1850 to 1900.

The regional temperature anomalies on a yearly average are a result of many underlying factors:

The Yearly Temperature Anomaly Distribution is important because not all areas of the Earth are warming equally, and not all areas respond the same to the warming. For example, the polar regions are warming faster than the global average, which accelerates the ice melt. Understanding regional temperature increases will be one of many crucial factors for humanity’s ability to deal with regional and global climate change disasters.

Wikipedia: Instrumental temperature record

Degree Celsius (°C) or degree Fahrenheit (°F) per year per area. Each dot represents an area of approximately 180 km by 180 km, which is around 32,000 km².

The poles are warming faster due to polar amplification. In 2012, the warming at the North Pole was extreme. In almost all years since 2000, the effect has been clearly visible.

The northern hemisphere warms faster than the southern hemisphere. Different types of land cover, like ocean, land and ice, cause differences in regional warming. For example, the southern hemisphere is dominated by oceans and is warming more slowly than the northern hemisphere, which has a lot of land mass.

Greenhouse gases cause global warming, but regional emissions do not specifically warm those regions because greenhouse gases spread quickly around the world.

In 2023 you can see some of the highest anomalies so far. It was the warmest year since the pre-industrial era and had the highest global and regional anomalies. It is full of orange, red and violet areas, representing anomalies up to 8 °C (14.4 °F). Such high levels can only be observed in the last few decades.

The year 1904 is an example of a cold year, where the majority of the globe is colored blue.

In 1964 you can explore a rather cool year, which occurred during a period of global dimming.

The data are an average of four sources that are used by IPCC and IGCC for temperature anomalies: HadCRUT5, NOAAGlobalTemp, Berkeley Earth and Kadow et al.. Each of these sources have gridded datasets. The underlying data is gathered using a huge number of weather stations on land, ships, buoys and more.

Two of the sources, NOAAGlobalTemp and Kadow et al., provide a complete coverage of data across the whole globe since 1850. HadCRUT5 and Berkeley Earth have many blank values for remote areas before 1950. The data that we show is the average of the available data sources. Since 1950 the scientific and technological methods of observing our planet have significantly improved and all sources have high coverage and confidence.

Yearly Temperature Anomaly Distribution

What is the Monthly Earth&apos;s Energy Imbalance?

This is the monthly imbalance of the energy that the Earth receives from the Sun compared to the energy that it radiates back into space. The energy imbalance leads to the warming or cooling of the Earth.

Almost all incoming energy comes from the Sun. Outgoing energy is dependent on factors like the albedo of clouds and ice sheets, greenhouse gases like water vapor, natural and human-made carbon dioxide, and sulfur dioxide from volcanic eruptions and industrial activities.

The IPCC adopted the concept of energy balance under the term radiative forcing.

The energy balance is expressed in Watts per square meter (W/m2), which means the energy increase (or decrease) per square meter of the Earth. The Earth’s surface is expected to heat up by 0.8 °C (1.44 °F) for each 1 W/m2 increase.

Wikipedia: Climate sensitivity parameter λ 0.8 °C / (W/m2)

A higher difference means more energy imbalance; these are highlighted as yellow and pure blue areas.

The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo caused a major increase in the energy radiated out by the Earth.

Wikipedia: 1991 Eruption of Mount Pinatubo

Many humps in the energy imbalance graph can be explained by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation variation. The El Niño and La Niña phases have complex consequences for energy imbalance and global warming.

Since 1994 there has been a consistent positive difference (more energy and warming), which appears as the yellow area in the chart (energy from the Sun). The IPCC has high confidence that the main driver of the current imbalance is due to the reduction in the Earth&apos;s energy radiation caused by greenhouse gases.

We combine two NASA satellite-based data sets and apply rolling averages and linear interpolation.

The CERES EBAF-TOA Ed4.2 data product started collecting data in the year 2000. We calculate the yearly rolling averages from CERES EBAF-TOA Ed4.2 in order to highlight the trend, because monthly sinusoidal data would obscure the trend.

The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) provides an average time series of yearly global values from 1985 to 1999.

Monthly Earth&apos;s Energy Imbalance

What is the Monthly Greenhouse Gases’ Impact on the Energy Balance?

The previous chart shows the big picture of the Earth&apos;s energy imbalance. This chart focuses on the impact of the crucial greenhouse gases on the big picture. It shows the impact estimates of the monthly change in the energy balance caused by the three main greenhouse gases, CO2 (carbon dioxide), CH4 (methane) and N2O (nitrous oxide). The impact comes from the increase in the greenhouse gas concentrations from the pre-industrial levels.

Greenhouse gases absorb the energy that the Earth should be radiating back into space, like a blanket that warms the Earth. You can see this in the reduction of the blue area in the Earth&apos;s Energy Imbalance chart. The rise in the concentration of greenhouse gases since the pre-industrial levels has reduced the rate of radiated energy by about 3W/m2.

There are many other factors that impact the Earth&apos;s energy balance, such as changes in the Sun&apos;s intensity, the Earth&apos;s albedo, halogenated gases, water vapor, ozone and aerosols like sulfur dioxide. We are looking for the data and calculations to show you about those impacts too.

The IPCC estimates the impact of many such factors as part of their study on radiative forcing.

The impact is expressed in Watts per square meter (W/m2) to allow it to be compared to the energy balance of the Earth. The values are an estimate of the reduction of the Earth&apos;s radiated energy.

You can see a steady rise in the impact for all three main greenhouse gases. The chart also shows the relative impacts of the greenhouse gases compared to each other.

We combine three data sets with atmospheric gas concentrations to calculate the impact on the energy imbalance (radiative forcing).

The calculations are from the Meinshausen et al. (2020) paper &apos;The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500&apos;.

Atmospheric concentration data for carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are from the NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory.

Global Warming

Yearly Average Observed Temperature Anomaly

Yearly Average Temperature

Rate of Temperature Change

Yearly Temperature Anomaly Distribution

Monthly Earth's Energy Imbalance

Monthly Greenhouse Gases' Impact on Energy Balance