Progress of Global Climate Change 2025

Key Messages

• Temperatures: For 2025, the human-caused warming was 1.38°C, and the observed global average temperature was 1.39°C, dropping from 1.5°C in 2024, which was driven by El Niño and warmer-than-average North Atlantic waters. Human-caused warming has increased at a rate of around 0.27°C per decade (2016-2025) and remains at its all-time high.
• Paris Agreement: Reaching 1.5°C global warming on a long-term basis is inevitable in around four years if we don't take the immediate, transformative action needed to reduce emissions from fossil fuels and deforestation to net zero.
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions: In 2025, CO2 emissions from fossil fuels continue a rising trend to an all-time high of 38.1 gigatonnes. Emissions from land-use drop slightly to 4.1 gigatonnes. Data for other greenhouse gases will be available later this year.
• Carbon Budget: The remaining carbon budget for a 50% likelihood to stay under 1.5 °C of global warming is only around 130 gigatonnes, around 3 years' worth of current emissions.
• Sea Level Rise: Since the start of the 20th century, global sea levels have risen by approximately 23 cm. Between 2015 and 2025, the level rose by about 3.5 cm — an average rate of ~3.5 mm per year.
• Immediate Transformative Action Required: To achieve net zero and to stabilize temperatures, the pace and scale of climate action globally must match the rate and scale of the climate challenge.
• To stop warming around 1.5 °C we must yearly reduce CO₂ emissions by 6 Gigatonnes (or 8 Gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent) and reach net zero in around 6 years — by 2032.
• To stop warming around 1.7 °C we will have to reduce emissions yearly by 1.6 Gigatonnes of CO₂ (or 2.1 Gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent) and reach net zero in 24 years — by 2050.
• Last full year of assessment 2025.
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