South Africa's Sources of CH4 Emissions
Key Insights
Methane’s Overall Role In South Africa
Methane contributes roughly a quarter of South Africa's overall warming impact, with emissions led by fugitive emissions (a little over 40%), followed by livestock (about one‑third) and waste (around one‑sixth). Fuel combustion is smaller but still material, while crop production and other sources are minor. This mix frames where the biggest gains from cuts can be made.
Fugitive Emissions Shape The Trend
Fugitive emissions surged from the mid‑20th century through the mid‑1990s, then largely leveled off. Since the late 1990s they have fluctuated between the mid‑30s and low‑40s megatonnes, edging down recently toward the mid‑30s. This marks a transition from decades of rapid growth to a high but broadly stable plateau with a gentle decline.
Livestock Stable, Waste Marches Up
Livestock emissions rose through the early 1960s, then stayed fairly steady in the high‑teens for decades before easing down in the 2010s toward the mid‑teens. Waste, by contrast, has climbed steadily since the 1980s, reaching just over 20 megatonnes today. Fuel combustion has hovered in the low single digits and has drifted down since the late 2000s.
Next Steps For Major Sources
Today, fugitive emissions are stabilizing to slightly falling, livestock is edging down, waste is still rising, and fuel combustion is declining. Progress in the first two needs to be sustained and deepened, while reversing the rise in waste is essential. Given methane's short-lived nature, faster reductions-especially in the largest sources-can lower its warming impact relatively quickly.
Background
The chart shows a national breakdown by source of the yearly methane (CH4) emissions from human activities expressed as weight in megatonnes (Mt). In the scientific literature, these are referred to as anthropogenic emissions. Human-induced methane emissions increase atmospheric methane, which is warming the Earth. The sources of human methane emissions are
- Livestock
- Fugitive emissions from the fossil fuel industry
- Crop production
- Fossil fuel combustion
- Waste management
- Other processes
Methane's Global Warming Potential
Methane has a much higher Global Warming Potential (GWP) than CO2. However, the effect lasts only for a relatively brief period (9 years on average), compared to hundreds of years for CO2. A reduction in emissions can cause a rapid decline in its atmospheric levels and climate impact.
Livestock
Livestock emits methane that is produced in the animals' digestive system. Most methane is emitted from the mouth during rumination. A much smaller amount of methane is emitted from the manure. Depending on how the manure is managed, i.e., wet or dry, more methane is emitted. Wet management leads to higher methane emissions than dry management. However, dry management also emits nitrous oxide (N2O), which is another potent greenhouse gas.
Fugitive emissions from fossil fuel industry
Fugitive methane emissions are from the intentional and accidental release of methane, which happens during the extraction, storage, and transportation processes in the fossil fuel industry. Examples are methane leaks during oil and gas handling, storage, transport, incomplete combustion, and many more. Also, methane is deliberately ventilated from mines during the extraction of coal.
Methane is a primary part of “gas”, also called “natural gas” or “fossil gas”. Natural gas is used, for example, for heating and electricity generation, whereby it emits CO2 during the combustion process. However, when natural gas leaks (unburned) it contains a lot of fugitive methane emissions.
Waste
Waste from landfills and wastewater produces a lot of methane when biodegradable material breaks down without oxygen.
Crop production
Crop production emissions are largely from rice cultivation, which generates large amounts of methane during plant growth. These emissions are from flooded paddies, which create the swamp-like environment of rice fields. There are agricultural techniques to reduce emissions significantly, like periodic drainage and aeration. Rice is the main staple for about half the world's population, and its emissions are a significant part of total human methane emissions.
Fuel combustion
Fuel combustion emissions are mostly from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels. As mentioned before, natural gas consists largely of methane, and when the combustion does not happen completely, methane enters the atmosphere.
Other
Other human-induced methane emissions include industrial processes and product uses.
Wikipedia: Anthropogenic Sources of Atmospheric MethaneIPCC: AR6, 5.2.2.2 Anthropogenic CH4 emissions
Units and Measures
CH4 emissions are expressed in the total weight in megatonnes per year. 1 Megatonne is equal to 1 million tonnes.
Wikipedia: MegatonneWikipedia: Global warming potential
About the Data
The last available year in all the emission datasets is 2023. Methane emissions come from the PRIMAP-Hist dataset. It is a rich dataset that combines several published sources to create a historical emissions time series for various greenhouse gases.
The Key Insights paragraph was created using a large language model (LLM) in combination with our data, historic events, and a structured approach for best accuracy by separating the context generation from the interpretation and narrative.
Data Sources
PRIMAP-hist The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2023)
Update cycle: Every few monthsDelay: Less than 1 yearCredits: Gütschow, Johannes; Busch, Daniel; Pflüger, Mika (2024): The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2023) v2.6. Zenodo.