Philippines' Progress and Recent Impact
✨ Key Insights
Low Per Capita Emissions
The Philippines' recent per capita greenhouse gas emissions are rated as "low," with a value of 2.38 tonnes per capita per year. This places the country in a favorable position compared to many other nations, reflecting its relatively modest contribution to global emissions on a per-person basis. The low per capita emissions are indicative of the country's ongoing efforts to manage its environmental impact, despite its growing population and economic development.
Rising Total Emissions
In 2023, the Philippines emitted a total of 279 megatonnes of CO2-equivalents, accounting for 0.51% of global emissions. While this share may seem small, it is important to recognize that even minor contributors collectively have a significant impact on global emissions. The country's emissions have been on an upward trend, with a 1.41% annual increase over the past decade. This rise is primarily driven by fossil fuel consumption, particularly coal and oil, which together account for over half of the total emissions.
Fossil Fuels and Industrialization
The increase in emissions is closely linked to the Philippines' industrialization and reliance on fossil fuels. The historical context of the Marcos era and subsequent economic growth periods have contributed to this trend. The country's energy sector, heavily reliant on coal, has seen a notable increase in emissions, reflecting the challenges of balancing economic development with environmental sustainability. Efforts to transition to renewable energy sources, as part of the Paris Agreement commitments, are crucial for reversing this trend.
Future Challenges and Opportunities
Looking ahead, the Philippines faces the challenge of reducing its emissions while continuing to develop economically. The commitment to the Paris Agreement and initiatives to increase renewable energy use offer a pathway to achieving this balance. By focusing on sustainable development and energy efficiency, the Philippines can work towards reducing its emissions and contributing to global climate change mitigation efforts. The country's low per capita emissions provide a strong foundation for these efforts, highlighting the potential for positive change.
Background
Recent per Capita Emissions
The Recent per Capita Emissions are a crucial indicator of a nation's greenhouse gas emissions. They are a fair measure for comparing the emissions of nations, taking into account the size of their populations.
Because any greenhouse gas emissions above 0 cause warming, the per capita emissions shouldn't be judged against the global average; they should be compared based on how far they are above 0. Therefore, our rating scale is:
- Extremely High: above 10 tonnes per capita per year
- Very High: above 7.5 tonnes
- High: above 5 tonnes
- Moderate: above 2.5 tonnes
- Low: above 0 tonnes
- Negative Emissions: under 0
The per capita emissions should be close to zero for each country, indicated here by the green & low areas.
Last Year Emissions
This is the total amount of CO2, CH4, N2O, and F-Gases emissions of a nation in 2023 (last available year in the data) expressed in megatonnes of CO2-equivalents. The gases have different atmospheric lifetimes (decay) and warming effects, for this reason, we use the GWP100 (100 year time horizon method) to calculate the global warming potential of CH4, N2O, and F-Gases to express them in CO2-equivalents.
Wikipedia: Global Warming PotentialLast Year Share
This is a nation's share of the global emissions in 2023 (last available year in the data). For many countries this value can be quite small, especially when compared to nations like United States or China. It is easy and dangerous to jump to the conclusion that small shares of emissions don't matter. They matter as a group. Even small emitters can account for a significant amount of total emissions. Consider the following examples:
- 24 nations, each between 0.5 and 1.5% of the total emissions, make up 20% of the total emissions.
- 27 nations, each between 0.5 and 2% of the total emissions, make up 25% of the total emissions.
- 162 nations with a share below 0.5% make up 15% of the total.
- 3 nations, make 44% of the total emissions: China, United States and India. However, China and India together have a population of about 2.9 billion.
Per Capita Emissions are therefore the most crucial indicator to represent the impact of a nation regardless of its size.
Yearly Emissions Trend
This is a nation's trend per year over the last 10 years. It is a good indicator of the trajectory of national emissions and can be used as a simple framework to judge a nation's trend vs. international goals:
- Stop warming around 1.5 °C: All nations together, and each nation, should drop emissions by 17% per year — 8,000 Megatonnes of CO2 Equivalent per Year.
- To achieve Net Zero in 2050 and to stop warming at ~1.7 °C: All nations should together, and each nation, should drop emissions by 4% per year — 2,100 Megatonnes of CO2 Equivalent per Year.
- Additionally, to return warming to pre-industrial levels almost all human-induced CO2 has to be taken out of the atmosphere.
About the Data
The last available year in all the emission datasets is 2023. CO2 emissions data is from the Global Carbon Project. It contains national CO2 emissions from fossil sources and land-use change. Emissions from CH4, N2O and F-gases come from the PRIMAP-Hist dataset. It is a rich dataset that combines several published sources to create a historical emissions time series for various greenhouse gases. Population data are also from Global Carbon Project where available, however, for many nations it doesn't have historic population going back to 1850. Those historic gaps are filled with population data from Our World in Data.
The Key Insights paragraph was generated using a large language model (LLM) using a structured approach to improve the accuracy. This included separating the context generation from the interpretation and narrative.
Data Sources
Global Carbon Budget 2024 Global Carbon Budget
Update cycle: yearlyDelay: ~ 10 months after the end of the year. Current year values are estimated and published in November.Credits: Friedlingstein et al., 2024, ESSD. Friedlingstein, P., O'Sullivan, M., Jones, M. W., Andrew, R. M., Hauck, J., Landschützer, P., Le Quéré, C., Li, H., Luijkx, I. T., Olsen, A., Peters, G. P., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Schwingshackl, C., Sitch, S., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Alin, S. R., Arneth, A., Arora, V., Bates, N. R., Becker, M., Bellouin, N., Berghoff, C. F., Bittig, H. C., Bopp, L., Cadule, P., Campbell, K., Chamberlain, M. A., Chandra, N., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Colligan, T., Decayeux, J., Djeutchouang, L., Dou, X., Duran Rojas, C., Enyo, K., Evans, W., Fay, A., Feely, R. A., Ford, D. J., Foster, A., Gasser, T., Gehlen, M., Gkritzalis, T., Grassi, G., Gregor, L., Gruber, N., Gürses, Ö., Harris, I., Hefner, M., Heinke, J., Hurtt, G. C., Iida, Y., Ilyina, T., Jacobson, A. R., Jain, A., Jarníková, T., Jersild, A., Jiang, F., Jin, Z., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Klein Goldewijk, K., Knauer, J., Korsbakken, J. I., Lauvset, S. K., Lefèvre, N., Liu, Z., Liu, J., Ma, L., Maksyutov, S., Marland, G., Mayot, N., McGuire, P., Metzl, N., Monacci, N. M., Morgan, E. J., Nakaoka, S.-I., Neill, C., Niwa, Y., Nützel, T., Olivier, L., Ono, T., Palmer, P. I., Pierrot, D., Qin, Z., Resplandy, L., Roobaert, A., Rosan, T. M., Rödenbeck, C., Schwinger, J., Smallman, T. L., Smith, S., Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Steinhoff, T., Sun, Q., Sutton, A. J., Séférian, R., Takao, S., Tatebe, H., Tian, H., Tilbrook, B., Torres, O., Tourigny, E., Tsujino, H., Tubiello, F., van der Werf, G., Wanninkhof, R., Wang, X., Yang, D., Yang, X., Yu, Z., Yuan, W., Yue, X., Zaehle, S., Zeng, N., and Zeng, J.: Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-519, in review, 2024.
PRIMAP-hist The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2023)
Update cycle: Every few monthsDelay: Less than 1 yearCredits: Gütschow, Johannes; Busch, Daniel; Pflüger, Mika (2024): The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2023) v2.6. Zenodo.
Our World in Data Population - Our World in Data
Update cycle: YearlyDelay: 7 monthsCredits: HYDE (2023); Gapminder (2022); UN WPP (2024) – with major processing by Our World in Data